As the deadline approaches for ethnic Albanians and Serbains to clear up disputes over Kosovar independence, increased tensions have turned violent. A bomb exploded in Kosovo's eastern province of Gnjilane last night, apparently directed at an advisor to the the deputy prime minister. This is the second attack within a month's time.
The United States, along with the European community and Russia, have been steadfast in their demand for a settlement to be reached by year's end. But Serbia has been pushing for an extension of the timeline until after the country's parliamentary elections, tentatively scheduled for December. If Kosovo is granted any sort of "independence" before the general elections, the chances of radicals regaining control of the country increase. Stalling on settlement, however, now seems likely to induce more violence from the Alabnians.
In the middle sits the United Nations. Former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari has mediated discussions between the Serbians and Albanians, but has failed to bring the groups closer to any substantial agreement. U.S. officials have warned both sides that neither should obstruct a peaceful settlement to the Kosovo question. Unfortunately, the problem remains that a forced settlement before the end of the calendar year will result in resistance from one, if not both, of the groups.
It seems to me that the Serbian request to prolong the Kosovo question should not be honored. It's not at all clear that radical politics in Serbia are strong enough to dominate electoral results. In fact, observers note that the popular vote will likely be split more or less evenly between contending moderate and radical parties. On the other hand, premature recognition of Kosovar soveriegnty risks overlooking important questions regarding whether the region is capable of governing itself according to democratic standards.
If the Serbians and Albanians do not possess the wherewithal to forge a compromise, it falls to the United Nations to handle the dispute. A Reuters correspondent recently reported that
The U.N. Security Council looks certain to impose a solution, which diplomats say will bring a form of independence supervised and policed by the EU. . . Diplomats say at least several weeks and perhaps months could pass be[fore] a U.N. vote.
If recent violence in Gnjilane is any measure, the Security Council may not have the luxury of time.
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