Michael K. Busch

Afghanistan Five Years Later

Five years have passed since the United States initiated military operations against al-Qaeda and Taliban forces in Afghanistan.  After the U.S. routed enemy forces and assumed control of the country, there seemed cause for optimism.  Of course, since that time things have gone down hill in a hurry.  Today, Afghanistan is a country completely out of control: the Karzai government only able to operate inside of the capital (thus Karzai's nickname "the Mayor of Kabul"); opium production at all time highs; a Taliban resurgence in the south; increased attacks against NATO forces the country over; and the list goes on.

The Taliban celebrated the anniversary by announcing that Mullah Omar is alive and well inside Afghanistan.  According to sources, he continues to lead the jihad against the the United States.  This announcement was accompanied by grim news that two German journalists were murdered while traveling through the northern provinces, and a NATO soldier was killed in the Panjwayi district outside Kandahar. 

Not to be left out of the mix, British PM Tony Blair did his best George Bush imitation by noting that continued operations against the Taliban have been "very, very tough."  In light of the "toughness" facing British soldiers in Afghanistan, Blair vowed to commit more resources to the struggle.  He also used the opportunity to criticize media coverage of British involvement in Afghanistan's descent into chaos.  "I think the morale of our troops carrying this out is actually high, but they get fed up - and so does everyone else - when it's all presented in a negative light when actually what they're doing there is of fundamental importance to the country," the prime minister said. 

This rhetorical sleight of hand confuses "it's all" (presumably the general situation in Afghanistan) with "what they're doing" (the British military in Afghanistan).  To my knowledge, nobody is criticizing the military's service inside the country.  Instead, critics attack the failure of coalition leadership to extract Afghanistan from its wretched state, leaving it in danger of collapse.

But at least Blair took the time to comment on the Afghan situation five years on.  President Bush has not yet publicly acknowledged today's anniversary one way or another.  Indeed, a quick look on the White House website shows that the president has been otherwise occupied: he's been busy christening the USS George H.W. Bush.   

Kosovo: Plowshares into Swords?

As the deadline approaches for ethnic Albanians and Serbains to clear up disputes over Kosovar independence, increased tensions have turned violent.  A bomb exploded in Kosovo's eastern province of Gnjilane last night, apparently directed at an advisor to the the deputy prime minister.  This is the second attack within a month's time.

The United States, along with the European community and Russia, have been steadfast in their demand for a settlement to be reached by year's end.  But Serbia has been pushing for an extension of the timeline until after the country's parliamentary elections, tentatively scheduled for December.  If Kosovo is granted any sort of "independence" before the general elections, the chances of radicals regaining control of the country increase.  Stalling on settlement, however, now seems likely to induce more violence from the Alabnians. 

In the middle sits the United Nations.  Former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari has mediated discussions between the Serbians and Albanians, but has failed to bring the groups closer to any substantial agreement.  U.S. officials have warned both sides that neither should obstruct a peaceful settlement to the Kosovo question.  Unfortunately, the problem remains that a forced settlement before the end of the calendar year will result in resistance from one, if not both, of the groups.

It seems to me that the Serbian request to prolong the Kosovo question should not be honored.  It's not at all clear that radical politics in Serbia are strong enough to dominate electoral results.  In fact, observers note that the popular vote will likely be split more or less evenly between contending moderate and radical parties.  On the other hand, premature recognition of Kosovar soveriegnty risks overlooking important questions regarding whether the region is capable of governing itself according to democratic standards. 

If the Serbians and Albanians do not possess the wherewithal to forge a compromise, it falls to the United Nations to handle the dispute.  A Reuters correspondent recently reported that

The U.N. Security Council looks certain to impose a solution, which diplomats say will bring a form of independence supervised and policed by the EU. . .  Diplomats say at least several weeks and perhaps months could pass be[fore] a U.N. vote.

If recent violence in Gnjilane is any measure, the Security Council may not have the luxury of time.